Newsflash Oct 21st 2009

And here's another entry telling you what's going on in transatlantic relations in general and U.S. foreign policy in particular.

U.S. - AFPAK

President Karzai has agreed to a run off vote, raising questions on the sincerity of the next round of the election

Mr. Karzai’s concession was a critical first step toward creating a credible Afghan government, coming after heavy pressure from European and American officials, including veiled threats that his actions could affect pending decisions about troops levels, according to one American official who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the delicacy of the matter.

But diplomats immediately questioned whether a new vote could be arranged before the announced date of Nov. 7, and whether a second round of balloting would have more security or less fraud than the first, in which nearly a quarter of ballots were thrown out by international auditors. “There are huge constraints to delivering in the second round,” said one Western official. “Can you deliver a result that is any different from the one we’ve already got?”

Meanwhile Pakistan's Army is engaged in severe fighting in South Waziristan.

The BBC is asking for Pakistan's war aims in Waziristan.

The ground offensive that it launched in the region on Saturday is viewed by analysts as its most serious attempt so far to liquidate the militant network there.

This conclusion is based on the tactics the army has adopted so far.

Unlike previous operations which were invariably half-hearted, haphazard and abortive, it took its time to plan a thorough operation this time.

Meanwhile UN General Secretary is calling for half of the Afghan poll officials to be sacked.

World leaders have welcomed the acceptance by President Hamid Karzai that he had not won the poll outright.

It came after a UN-backed panel lowered Mr Karzai's vote share below 50%.

The UN investigation found evidence of vote-rigging on a massive scale in the August election.

The second round, between Mr Karzai and former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, has been scheduled for 7 November.

The president said it was "time to move forward to stability and national unity".

The NYTimes has a great article on David Rohde, a NYTimes reporter being kidnapped by Taliban and held during March.

U.S. - EUROPE


Vice president Joe Bidenis in Warzaw to meet with Polish leaders to allegedly reassure the U.S. -polish ties in light of the cancelled missile defence program. Yesterday Poland accepted Obama's SM3 missile defence plan. In the next days Biden will tour more Eastern European countries.

Many Poles view Biden's trip as a way for the U.S. to reverse damage done by the U.S. administration's handling of its changes to the Bush-era missile defense system plan.

Last month, Obama scrapped Bush's plans to put missile defense interceptors in Poland and a radar in the Czech Republic, a system that was intended to shoot down future long-range missiles from Iran.

The administration's planned replacement would instead be aimed against Iranian short- and intermediate-range missiles; the Obama administration says that makes more sense, in part because Iran doesn't yet have long-range capabilities.

Obama has promised Poland and the Czech Republic the right to host elements of the new system. In particular, the U.S. has offered Warsaw the chance to host SM-3 missiles -- the U.S. Navy's Standard Missile-3, an anti-ballistic missile that the Pentagon says is the most technically advanced and cost-effective way to counter Iran's anticipated arsenal.

U.S. - MIDDLE EAST


Iraq's prime Minister visited the White House on Tuesday.

U.S. and Iranian officials met directly on Tuesday in Vienna over the nuclear dispute.

A diplomat at the closed-door talks told The Associated Press that a deal was "close" but not yet sealed. Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner of France - one of the nations negotiating with Iran - warned that it and its partners in the talks "won't back down" on insisting that Tehran export most of its enriched material.

Tuesday was the second day of talks in the Austrian capital between Iran and the United States, Russia and France over Iran's nuclear program. But the meeting convened only in the late evening after a day of backdoor negotiations, mediated in part by International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei.

Tehran says it needs enriched uranium for nuclear fuel but the U.S. and other nations fear that could be used to make weapons. The U.S. says Iran is one to six years away from being able to do so.

Iran had signaled earlier that it might not meet Western demands for a deal under which it would ship most of its enriched material out of the country.

Meanwhile the BBC reports that the Iran nuclear talks are going slwoly.



U.S. - AFRICA
U.S. increasing aid to Mali.

U.S. - ASIA

Secretary of Defence Robert Gates claims North Korean military to be more lethal.

"America's long-term military commitment here [East Asia] recognizes that the peril posed by the North Korean regime remains, and in many ways has become even more lethal and destabilizing," Gates told U.S. and South Korean troops in Seoul.

Impoverished North Korea positions most of its 1.2 million soldiers near the border with the wealthy South, has thousands of artillery pieces trained on the Seoul area and hundreds of missiles that can hit all of the South and most of Japan.

It fired a barrage of short-range missiles last week that military officials in the South said showed greater accuracy and range than previous versions. Analysts said the launch was an attempt by Pyongyang to boost its bargaining leverage ahead of any nuclear talks.

The North has tested numerous missiles this year and has boosted the number of special force troops who are trained to invade the South, military officials in Seoul have said.

"There should be no mistaking that we do not today, nor will we ever, accept a North Korea with nuclear weapons," said Gates, who was in South Korea after visiting Japan.

Gates warned that North Korea poses a serious risk to global efforts to halt the proliferation of nuclear arms and ballistic missiles. "Everything they make, they seem willing to sell."

U.S. - domestic

The U.S. supreme court ccepted an appeal by Uighur Muslims (China) to be released from Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

According to a "new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that support for a government-run health-care plan to compete with private insurers has rebounded from its summertime lows and wins clear majority support from the public."

Independents and senior citizens, two groups crucial to the debate, have warmed to the idea of a public option, and are particularly supportive if it would be administered by the states and limited to those without access to affordable private coverage.

But in a sign of the fragile coalition politics that influence the negotiations in Congress, Obama's approval ratings on health-care reform are slipping among his fellow Democrats even as they are solidifying among independents and seniors. Among Democrats, strong approval of his handling of the issue has dropped 15 percentage points since mid-September.

The White House issued a report claiming that the Stimulus package preserved education jobs.

Federal economic recovery aid has created or saved 250,000 education jobs, the Obama administration announced Monday, although states and school systems continue to face enormous fiscal pressures.

The report issued by the White House and the Education Department does not address how many education jobs have been cut this year because of the recession, nor does it project how many are in jeopardy in the coming year.

BLOGROLL:

Abu Muqawama on CNAS has a link to a paper looking at three possible scenarios for Afghanistan. The link to the paper is here.

His reports indicates that

The most likely scenario in Afghanistan, by contrast,
is one in which the United States and its allies
gradually tire of a costly counterinsurgency campaign
and transition to a more limited engagement
that, while not meeting many of the strategic goals
articulated by the president in March, allows the
United States and its allies to still influence affairs in
Central Asia and prevent a total return of the Taliban
and its allies to power in Afghanistan. [...]In this scenario, President Obama’s policy of not
allowing Afghanistan and Pakistan to be a safe
haven from which transnational terror groups can
plot attacks against the United States and other
Western states will likely not be realized.

The best case scenario for Afghanistan is a functioning
Afghan state inhospitable to transnational terror
groups. In this scenario, a government representing
all major factions in Afghanistan, however imperfectly,
would be essential.

At FP Austin Long is comparing COIN and Counter Terrorism as a response to Michael O 'Hanlon's claim that a reduced footprint in Afghanistan won't work. Exemplifying what a real Counter Terrorism strategy in Afghanistan would look like.

No one has attempted to put flesh on this skeleton in terms of numbers and locations of U.S. troops, so I'm proposing the following as a possible small footprint counterterrorism posture.

First, this posture would require maintaining bases and personnel in Afghanistan.
Three airfields would be sufficient: Bagram, north of Kabul, Jalalabad in eastern Afghanistan, and ideally Kandahar, in the insurgency-ridden south of the country.

Second, In terms of special operations forces, this posture would rely on two squadrons of so-called "Tier 1" operators, one at each forward operating base. These could be drawn from U.S. special mission units or Allied units such as the British Special Air Service or Canada's Joint Task Force 2.

[...] Finally, my proposed posture would require additional staff, logistics, and support personnel (medical for instance), some but not all of which can be contractors, adding another 2,000 military personnel. This would be a total force of about 13,000 military personnel and some number of supporting intelligence community personnel and contractors.

more here.

News flash. Tuedsday Oct 20th

USA- AFPAK:

Pakistani forces are advancing in South Waziristan

Sounding a confident tone on the second day of the campaign against the forces of the Taliban and Al Qaeda, a senior military official said “the level of resistance from the militants is not very high.” Even so, said the official, who declined to be identified, the area was heavily mined and Pakistani forces encountered many homemade bombs.

But the Taliban said part of their strategy was to encourage the military to progress deeper into the militant enclave in the center of South Waziristan, and then tie the soldiers down with hit-and-run tactics that would keep the soldiers in a protracted campaign in the inhospitable terrain over the winter.

The government forces would be hit hard once they penetrated farther into the mountains, the favorite fighting areas for the militants, a Taliban organizer who is not involved in the current fighting said by telephone on Sunday from Wana, the capital of South Waziristan.

The WSJ is also reporting on the issue.

Karzai's team is still refusing UN claims of vote fraud. even with final results being published by the Afghanistans Electoral Commission today.

Initial results released last month gave Mr Karzai nearly 55% of votes, and his main rival Abdullah Abdullah 28%, suggesting the president had won outright.

But the ECC said that after fraudulent ballots were discounted, Mr Karzai's total was reduced to below 50%, indicating that a second round was needed. Mr Karzai has previously refused a run-off, insisting he won the election outright. He could also seek a power-sharing deal with Mr Abdullah.

Correspondents say there are concerns that a run-off could lead to further fraud, violence and ethnic strife.

There is also limited time available, as much of the north of the country becomes inaccessible in winter.

The US response presented is stalling and waiting for the results, until deciding whether to deploy more troops.

The CFR is weighing on on its webpage on the risks of delaying a decision on Afghan strategy.

The WP is reporting that even while attacks on training camps increase the number of terrorists training is increasing, especially westerners.

The gunman did not speak but wore military fatigues and waved his rifle as subtitles identified him as an American. The video contained a stream of threats against Germany if it did not withdraw its troops from the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan. Although the American's part in the film lasted only a few seconds, it has alarmed German and U.S. intelligence officials, who are still puzzling over his background, his real identity and how he became involved with the terrorist group.

U.S. and European counterterrorism officials say a rising number of Western recruits -- including Americans -- are traveling to Afghanistan and Pakistan to attend paramilitary training camps. The flow of recruits has continued unabated, officials said, in spite of an intensified campaign over the past year by the CIA to eliminate al-Qaeda and Taliban commanders in drone missile attacks.

USA - MIDDLE EAST

King Abdullah II of Jordan warning the U.S. on Middle East policy, and showing dissapointment by slow progress on Israel-Palestine issue.

He said the two sides have a window of opportunity over the next year to make progress on creating a two-state solution, after which point the possibility of a Palestinian state will disappear as more Arab land gets swallowed up by Jewish settlements.

"The window of opportunity will soon close," he was quoted as saying. "By the end of 2010, if Israel doesn't believe in the two-state solution, the possibility of a future Palestinian state will disappear because of geographic reasons: already the land is fragmented into cantons."

He urged Washington and the European Union to put pressure on Israel to sit down with the Palestinians to negotiate peace, even though he remains suspicious of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and somewhat disillusioned with the U.S. effort to date.

"I'll be sincere; I had expected more, sooner," he said of the U.S. efforts and the seven missions already conducted by the U.S. envoy George Mitchell.

"I believed in a decisive turn at the beginning of the summer, ahead of a true peace negotiation at the United Nations," he said. "But the question of Israeli settlements — which are illegal according to the international community — remains central."

The IAEA is commenting on the Iran nuclear talks. While not sending the nuclear chief negotiator and head of Security Council, the talks are claimed to be going well.



USA- DOMESTIC

Obama administration officials are critizing Wall St. companies, fixing to pay big bonuses.

"The bonuses are offensive," Obama senior adviser David Axelrod said Sunday on ABC's "This Week," adding that banks must do more to support lending across the country and should stop their lobbying efforts aimed at blocking the passage of new financial regulations that are being prepared in Congress.

"They ought to think through what they are doing, and they ought to understand that a year ago a lot of these institutions were teetering on the brink, and the United States government and taxpayers came to their defense," Axelrod said. "They have responsibilities, and they ought to meet those responsibilities."

The Obama administration has defied popular opinion in backing huge government bailouts to try to rescue much of the nation's auto industry and stabilize the financial system, steps it saw as critical to fostering an economic recovery. At the same time, it has attempted to tap into popular anger at corporate America with outspoken criticism of bonuses, perks and other practices that have long been staples of big business.

Crude oil has reached highest level after reaching 79$/barrel.

News flash. Monday Oct 19th

USA- Afghanistan

Today is the great day of Afghanistan coverage. Eric Schmitt of the NY Times reports on the income sources of the Taliban.

In Afghanistan, the Taliban have imposed an elaborate system to tax the cultivation, processing and shipment of opium, as well as other crops like wheat grown in the territory they control, American and Afghan officials say. In the Middle East, Taliban leaders have sent fund-raisers to Arab countries to keep the insurgency’s coffers brimming with cash.

Estimates of the Taliban’s annual revenue vary widely. Proceeds from the illicit drug trade alone range from $70 million to $400 million a year, according to Pentagon and United Nations officials. By diversifying their revenue stream beyond opium, the Taliban are frustrating American and NATO efforts to weaken the insurgency by cutting off its economic lifelines, the officials say.

Peter Bakery and Sabrina Tavernise are reporting from Washington on a potential delay over the troop decision Obama's.

he question at the heart of the matter, said President Obama’s chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, is not “how many troops you send, but do you have a credible Afghan partner for this process that can provide the security and the type of services that the Afghan people need?” He appeared on CNN’s “State of the Union” and CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

He echoed the thoughts of Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, a top Obama ally and the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, who said in a separate interview from Kabul, “I don’t see how President Obama can make a decision about the committing of our additional forces, or even the further fulfillment of our mission that’s here today, without an adequate government in place.” His interview was broadcast on “Face the Nation.”

The Wall Street Journal is taking a closer look at Karzai's stand on the election in Afghanistan.

Thousands of Mr. Karzai's supporters, wearing black, marched through the town of Spin Boldak in the southern province of Kandahar, near the Pakistani border. They chanted against "foreign interference" in the elections.

"The foreigners are trying to push a second round, and we are not going to participate this time," said Talim Khan, who marched in Spin Boldak. "They don't respect our votes. Despite threats that the Taliban will cut off our nose and ears we went to the polling station. We won't do so again."

Smaller protests took place in other parts of the province. Elsewhere, a group of Islamic scholars in the eastern part of the country issued statements decrying the ECC and calling the country "under occupation." A number of pro-Karzai lawmakers Sunday issued fiery denunciations in parliament of foreign meddling.

Foreign Policy weighs in with a briefing on U.S. strategy in dealing with Afghanistan, arguing for humility. another argument for COIN.

American policy over the next five or 10 years must proceed from the understanding that the ultimate exit strategy for international forces from South Asia is Pakistan's economic success and political normalization, manifested in an Army that shares power with civilian leaders in a reasonably stable constitutional bargain, and in the increasing integration of Pakistan's economy with regional economies, including India's. Such an evolution will likely consolidate the emerging view within Pakistan's elites that the country requires a new and less self-defeating national security doctrine. As in the Philippines, Colombia, and Indonesia, the pursuit of a more balanced, less coup-ridden, more modern political-military order in Pakistan need not be complete or confused with perfection for it to gradually pinch the space in which al Qaeda, the Taliban, and related groups now operate. Moreover, in South Asia, outsiders need not construct or impose this modernizing pathway as a neo-imperial project. The hope for durable change lies first of all in the potential for normalizing relations between Pakistan and India, a negotiation between elites in those two countries that is already well under way, without Western mediation, and is much more advanced than is typically appreciated. Its success is hardly assured, but because of the transformational effect such normalization would create, the effects of American policies in the region on its prospects should be carefully assessed.

USA- domestic:

Reporting on climate change, and especially energy companies stand on green legislation the NY Times argues that a split exists in the energy sector.


Paul Krugman gives his opinion on the state of the banks, arguing that especiallz banks in the lending businss are still struggling to cope.

Newsweek is reporting on some liberal arts colleges coming up with three year programs.

For all of these reasons, some forward-looking colleges like Hartwick are rethinking the old way of doing things and questioning decades-old assumptions about what a college degree means. For instance, why does it have to take four years to earn a diploma? This fall, 16 first-year students and four second-year students at Hartwick, located halfway between Binghamton and Albany, enrolled in the school's new three-year degree program. According to the college, the plan is designed for high-ability, highly motivated students who wish to save money or to move along more rapidly toward advanced degrees.

By eliminating that extra year, three-year degree students save 25 percent in costs. Instead of taking 30 credits a year, these students take 40. During January, Hartwick runs a four-week course during which students may earn three to four credits on or off campus, including a number of international sites. Summer courses are not required, but a student may enroll in them—and pay extra. Three-year students get first crack at course registration. There are no changes in the number of courses professors teach or in their pay.

USA - Africa:

Will Inboden from Shadow govt at FP is taking an insightful look at Obama's Sudan strategy.

USA - Iran:

After the terrorist attack in Iran, the Islamic republic is blaming and threatening the U.S. and UK.

The Baluchi insurgent group Jundallah — or Soldiers of God — took responsibility for the bombings, which included a suicide attack on a community meeting led by Revolutionary Guards and a roadside attack on a car full of Guards, both in the area of the city of Pishin.

Jundallah, whose members are Sunni Muslims, has claimed responsibility for other attacks in the region in recent years, and is believed to have killed hundreds of Iranian soldiers and civilians. The southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchistan has been the scene of attacks in the past, and in April the government put the Guards Corps in control of security there to try to stop the escalating violence. [...]Iranian officials said they had evidence the attack was launched from within Pakistan, where Jundallah is based, and the Foreign Ministry late Sunday summoned Pakistan’s chargé d’affaires, Press TV said.

A Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman, Abdul Basit, told the Daily Times newspaper: “Pakistan is not involved in terrorist activities,” adding, “We are striving to eradicate this menace.”

Ali Larijani, the speaker of Parliament, said the United States bore some responsibility for the attacks. “If they want relations with Iran, they must be frank,” he said, according to the semiofficial ISNA news service, adding, “We consider the recent terrorist measure the outcome of the U.S. measures.”

In the past, Iranian officials have accused the United States of financing and arming Jundallah.

The United States condemned the bombings and denied any connection with them. “We condemn this act of terrorism and mourn the loss of innocent lives,” said Ian C. Kelly, a State Department spokesman. “Reports of alleged U.S. involvement are completely false.”