Saturday, August 9, 2008

As the Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili said in a interview with the BBC, pleading for international help and agreeing to a immediate ceasefire, in his background was not only Georgia's flag and the official Governments flag on his left but that of the European Union on his right.

Georgia is not yet a member of the EU, but has interest in becoming a member.

The EU on Georgia- EU relations:
The ENP Action Plan endorsed by the EU-Georgia Cooperation Council of 14 November 2006 aims at fulfilling the provisions of the PCA and contributing to a closer relationship with Georgia, involving a significant degree of economic integration and deepening the political co-operation. It covers a period of five years.


Is Saakashvili using the flag in order to call on the EU among all for help?

Russian troop level in South Ossetia's neighbourhood



On several blogs, the question arose why Russian troops could move so fast into South Ossetia. This could be interpreted as Russian troops waiting for Georgia to take the bait and move into South Ossetia. I tried to find a map of Russian military installations. All I found was the above one on here.

According to this website there's a troop level of 185'000 Air Force troops and 322'000 Ground troops, plus some more logistics and other the Black Sea fleet in the North Caucasus Military District. Most divisions have taken part in the Chechen wars.

Alone in Vladikavkaz just some 30miles across the border of South Ossetia has almost 7000 troops of which 223 are tank troops and more than 1000 troops in Artillery units.

The close proximity to South Ossetia and the huge amount of armoured troops could make a quick reaction and troop deployment within 12hrs to South Ossetia possible.

Friday, August 8, 2008

Reality imitating game?? No not the olympics...

As news come rolling in about Russia and Georgia, and who has started or reacted to what I am being reminded of this:

Eastern Europe, 2008
The world teeters on the brink of war. Radical ultranationalists have seized power in Moscow - their goal, the reestablishment of the old Soviet empire. Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan - one by one the nearby independent republics slip back into the Russian orbit. Russian tanks sit in the Caucasus Mountains and the Baltic forests, poised to strike to the south and east. The world hold ots breath, and waits.
For one small group of elite soldiers, the war has already begun: U.S. Special Forces Group 5, First Battalion, D Company. Deployed on peacekeping duty to the Republic of Georgia in the Caucasus, this handful of Green Berets represents the very tip of the spear. They call themselves "The Ghosts"
seehere

Back in 2003, I suppose it was a nice idea of the geeks behind Ghost Recon to set a fictive war in 2008 between Georgia and Russia, as the backdrop of a computer game. Unfortunately reality seems to have copied at least part of the game as of today. Still not convinced? The missions at least at the beginning of the game, play in South Ossetia.

But before one condemns my comparison, read Daniel Nexon's thoughts, or Stratfor:

Given the speed with which the Russians reacted to Georgia’s incursion into South Ossetia, Moscow was clearly ready to intervene. We suspect the Georgians were set up for this in some way, but at this point the buildup to the conflict no longer matters. What matters is the message that Russia is sending to the West.

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev summed this message up best: “Historically Russia has been, and will continue to be, a guarantor of security for peoples of the Caucasus.”

Strategically, we said Russia would respond to Kosovo’s independence, and they have. Russia is now declaring the Caucasus to be part of its sphere of influence. We have spoken for months of how Russia would find a window of opportunity to redefine the region. This is happening now.